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Kim Jong Un reportedly agrees to meet Trump at the Korean DMZ

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kim moon shake

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reportedly agreed to meet President Donald Trump for a historic meeting in the Korean demilitarized zone, the most heavily armed border in the world. 
  • Trump appeared on Monday to nod toward meeting Kim at the DMZ, rather than a neutral country, which could benefit the North Korean leader.
  • Last year, Trump visited South Korea but skipped a trip to the DMZ after trading mutual threats of nuclear annihilation with Kim. 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reportedly agreed to meet President Donald Trump for their historic meeting in the Korean demilitarized zone, the most heavily armed border in the world. 

Trump on Monday appeared to nod toward the DMZ as the ideal location for the meeting. On Tuesday, CNN's North Korea correspondent, Will Ripley, cited sources as saying Kim has agreed to the location.

By meeting Kim in Korea, Trump has potentially headed off some potentially embarrassing logistical difficulties for the North Korean leader, who may not have a plane fit to cross the Pacific

Trump will reportedly meet Kim in the same spot Kim met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Friday, when Kim made history by being the first North Korean leader to enter the South.

CNN's sources said there's a possibility Kim will invite Trump to enter North Korea, and that parts of the summit may take place in the country where no sitting US president has set foot.

A spokesperson for Moon told CNN they "think Panmunjom is quite meaningful as a place to erode the divide and establish a new milestone for peace."

"Wouldn't Panmunjom (the name of the border village where Moon and Kim met) be the most symbolic place?" the spokesperson added.

In addition to logistical and symbolic appropriateness, the DMZ has broadcasting infrastructure in place and proved capable of capturing the historic moment of Kim and Moon's meeting on Friday. 

While Trump seemingly dismissed more neutral locations like Singapore, Switzerland, or Mongolia, to meet with Kim, his nod to the DMZ on Monday seemed to indicate his preference for the spot based on its history

In 2017, Trump was criticized for visiting Asia and South Korea while skipping a trip to the DMZ. At that time, Trump and Kim had engaged in mutual threats of nuclear annihilation. 

But this year, Trump's proposed DMZ meeting with Kim will be the second time a Trump administration official has met the leader on peaceful terms, following Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's surprise visit to North Korea in April

SEE ALSO: The Trump administration just sent a dark, threatening message to Kim Jong Un

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Take a tour of North Korea's nuclear arsenal with a virtual reality museum of missiles

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North Korea missile Museum

North Korea experts at the Nuclear Threat Initiative have meticulously labeled, curated, and brought to life a museum of missiles detailing the rise of Pyongyang as a de facto nuclear power.

With missiles from the early days of Pyongyang's program to the final intercontinental-range ballistic missile that led Kim Jong Un to declare his country's nuclear ambitions completed this year, the museum will be a stroll down memory lane for seasoned North Korea watchers.

The virtual tour can also bring relative novices up to speed in a more hands on way than dry intelligence reports. The 3D tour features dozens of individual missiles, components, and real life pictures of the process.

Each scale model of a missile or component comes with a detailed slide.

In the window below, tour North Korea's nukes the safe way thanks to the NTI. Click here to find out how to tour it in virtual reality with Google Cardboard. 

SEE ALSO: The Trump administration just sent a dark, threatening message to Kim Jong Un

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South Korea wants the US military to stay in Korea even if a peace deal with the North happens

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US soldiers South Korea

  • South Korea said on Wednesday the issue of US troops stationed in the South is unrelated to any future peace treaty with North Korea, and they should stay in the country even if a peace deal happens.
  • The Blue House was responding to media questions about a column written by South Korean presidential adviser which said the US may have to withdraw after peace.
  • However, Seoul wants the troops to stay because U.S. forces in South Korea play the role of a mediator in military confrontations between neighboring superpowers like China and Japan.

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea said on Wednesday the issue of U.S. troops stationed in the South is unrelated to any future peace treaty with North Korea and that American forces should stay even if such an agreement is signed.

"U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are an issue regarding the alliance between South Koreaand the United States. It has nothing to do with signing peace treaties," said Kim Eui-kyeom, a spokesman for the presidential Blue House, citing President Moon Jae-in.

The Blue House was responding to media questions about a column written by South Korean presidential adviser and academic Moon Chung-in that was published earlier this week.

Moon Chung-in said it would be difficult to justify the presence of U.S. forces in South Korea if a peace treaty was signed after the two Koreas agreed at an historic summit last week to put an end to the Korean conflict.

However, Seoul wants the troops to stay because U.S. forces in South Korea play the role of a mediator in military confrontations between neighboring superpowers like China and Japan, another presidential official told reporters on condition of anonymity earlier on Wednesday.

Presidential adviser Moon Chung-in was asked not to create confusion regarding the president's stance, Kim said.

The United States currently has around 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, which North Korea has long demanded be removed as one of the conditions for giving up its nuclear and missile programs.

However, there was no mention in last week's declaration by Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. Kim and Moon Jae-in pledged to work for the "complete denuclearisation" of the Korean peninsula.

U.S. troops have been stationed in South Korea since the Korean War, which ended in 1953 in an armistice that left the two Koreas technically still at war.

Moon Jae-in and Kim have said they want to put an end to the Korean conflict, promising there will be "no more war" on the Korean peninsula.

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The US Navy has abandoned classic sailing skills — and it could lose its next war

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us navy night

  • The US Navy overly relies on electronics and automation, according to the US Naval Institute, and it could be its downfall in a war against a major foe like Russia or China.
  • US Navy figures have been warning for some time about a lack of fundamental skills that could lead to the US losing its next major sea conflict.
  • Russia and China both have a strong focus on countering the US's ability to access electronic and automated systems.


The US Navy has some of the world's most advanced ships with electronics and automated systems that handle much of the manual tasks involved in the millenias-old craft of sailing — but that same technological strength may be its downfall in a fight against Russia or China.

"The next war will be analog, and the surface Navy is unprepared for it," Jonathan Panter, a former US Navy Surface Warfare Officer begins an article in the US Naval Institute's April edition of "Proceedings," its monthly publication.

"Reliance on digital technologies is particularly acute in the realms of communications, propulsion systems, and navigation and has produced a fleet that may not survive the first missile hit or hack," Panter writes. 

Panter's comments follow a 2017 that saw two US Navy destroyers suffer massive collisions with container ships. These ships are among the world's best at tracking and defending against incoming missiles flying at hundreds of miles an hour, yet they failed to steer well enough to avoid getting hit by a relatively slow container ship the size of an urban neighborhood. 

"Navigation and seamanship, these are the fundamental capabilities which every surface warfare officer should have, but I suspect if called to war, we’ll be required to do a lot more than safely navigate the Singapore strait," US Navy Capt. Kevin Eyer, former skipper of the cruisers Shiloh, Chancellorsville, and Thomas Gates said in December. Eyer was speaking in reference to the USS John McCain's crash with a container ship in the Singapore strait, as Breaking Defense noted at the time.

"If our surface forces are unable to successfully execute these fundamental blocking and tackling tasks, how can it be possibly be expected that they are also able to do the much more complex warfighting tasks?" Eyer asked.

The Navy responded to the two major crashes by replacing the commander of its Pacific fleet, but concerns about its reliance on mutable, fallible electronic and automated systems remains an issue. Additionally, the Navy has begun teaching navigation based on the stars to its sailors in an effort to mitigate over-relaince on technology. 

From Panter:

Navigation, that quiet background endeavor without which missiles cannot be launched or guns fired, is similarly teetering one casualty away from disaster. For a loss of GPS, you switch to another; for a loss of a VMS console, you switch to another. But what happens in a total loss-of-power casualty? Wait until the 30-minute batteries on the GPS and VMS wind down, then switch to a laptop version—also battery-powered. The assumption, of course, is that help will be on the way.

China has deployed jamming equipment to the South China Sea. Russia has already begun jamming US Air Force platforms over Syria. All expert accounts say that electronic warfare, possibly even space-based attacks on GPS infrastructure in the sky will factory heavily into future warfare, making Panter's assessment all the more ominous. 

Russia operates a more analog fleet than the US in both at sea and in the air, and China's sea power is concentrated near its own shores where ground assets can back it up.

Through electronic warfare and a misstep in US Navy strategy, the world's biggest, most powerful Navy could lose its next war as its strengths turn to weaknesses in the face of technological over-reliance. 

SEE ALSO: Trump's nod to meeting Kim Jong Un at the Korean DMZ could save North Korea from an 'embarrassing' problem

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Beijing cements domination of the South China Sea with anti-ship cruise missile deployment

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spratly islands south china sea

  • China has installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three of its outposts in the South China Sea US intelligence officials reportedly said.
  • The installations, if confirmed, would mark the first Chinese missile deployments in the Spratly Islands, where several Asian countries including Vietnam and Taiwan have rival claims.
  • China could use the bases to challenge the U.S. regional presence, and "would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-claimants.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China has installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three of its outposts in the South China Sea, U.S. news network CNBC reported on Wednesday, citing sources with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reports.

The installations, if confirmed, would mark the first Chinese missile deployments in the Spratly Islands, where several Asian countries including Vietnam and Taiwan have rival claims.

China has made no mention of any missile deployments but says its military facilities in the Spratlys are purely defensive, and that it can do what it likes on its own territory.

China's Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the latest report.

The foreign ministry said China has irrefutable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and that its necessary defensive deployments were for national security needs and not aimed at any country.

"Those who do not intend to be aggressive have no need to be worried or scared," ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing.

China "hopes relevant parties can objectively and calmly view this", she added.

CNBC quoted unnamed sources as saying that according to U.S. intelligence assessments, the missiles were moved to Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef within the past 30 days.

The U.S. Defense Department, which opposes China's installation of military facilities on outposts it has built up in the South China Sea, declined comment. "We don't comment on matters of intelligence," a spokesman said.

Greg Poling, a South China Sea expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, said deploying missiles on the outposts would be important.

"These would be the first missiles in the Spratlys, either surface to air, or anti-ship," he said.

He added that such deployments were expected as China built missile shelters on the reefs last year and already deployed such missile systems on Woody Island further to the north.

Poling said it would be a major step on China's road to dominating the South China Sea, a key global trade route.

"Before this, if you were one of the other claimants ... you knew that China was monitoring your every move. Now you will know that you're operating inside Chinese missile range. That's a pretty strong, if implicit, threat," he said. 

CNBC said the YJ-12B anti-ship cruise missiles allowed China to strike vessels within 295 nautical miles. It said the HQ-9B long-range, surface-to-air missiles could target aircraft, drones and cruise missiles within 160 nautical miles.

South China Sea Map

  Last month, U.S. Admiral Philip Davidson, nominated to head U.S. Pacific Command, said China's "forward operating bases" in the South China Sea appeared complete.

"The only thing lacking are the deployed forces," he said. Once these were added, "China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania".

Davidson said China could use the bases to challenge the U.S. regional presence, and "would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-claimants.

"China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States," he said.

SEE ALSO: The US Navy has abandoned classic sailing skills — and it could lose its next war

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Kim Jong Un tells China he's committed to denuclearization after high-level diplomat visit

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Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping shake hands

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un told a visiting Chinese diplomat on Thursday that he is committed to denuclearization, China's foreign ministry said.
  • China is North Korea's most important economic and diplomatic backer, despite its anger at North Korea' repeated nuclear and missile tests, and its support for strong U.N. sanctions against the North.
  • China had largely sat on the sidelines while the two Koreas improved ties, until Kim made a secretive trip to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March.

BEIJING (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un told a visiting Chinese diplomat on Thursday that he is committed to denuclearization, China's foreign ministry said, as diplomatic efforts to bring lasting peace to the Korean peninsula gather pace.

China is North Korea's most important economic and diplomatic backer, despite its anger at North Korea' repeated nuclear and missile tests, and its support for strong U.N. sanctions against the North.

However, China has also welcomed moves by North Korea to improve ties with South Korea and the United States.

China's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, is visiting North Korea following last week's historic meeting between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and the North's Kim Jong Un, when both pledged to improve ties.

The North surprised the world several days before the summit by declaring it would dismantle its nuclear test site to "transparently guarantee" its dramatic commitment to stop all nuclear and missile tests.

Meeting in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, Kim told Wang that recent positive changes on the peninsula were beneficial to a peaceful resolution, China's foreign ministry said in a statement.

"Kim Jong Un said achieving the denuclearization of the peninsula is the firm position of the North Korean side," the ministry said.

Wang told Kim that North Korea had seized the day and made a decisive decision, bringing positive changes.

Last week's summit talks between the leaders of the two Koreans had brought about an opportunity for a political resolution, Wang added.

China supported an end to the state of war on the peninsula, North Korea's shift to economic development and the resolution of North Korea's legitimate security concerns during the denuclearization process, he said.

"China is willing to maintain communication with North Korea on this and increase coordination."

The 1950-53 Korean War, which technically is still going on because a peace treaty has yet to be signed.

Wang also met North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho.

'Positive role'

kim xi toast

In an earlier statement, Wang said China hoped dialogue between North Korea and the United States would be successful and that substantial progress would be made, referring to an upcoming meeting between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump.

"China is willing to strengthen communication with North Korea and continue to play a positive role in seeking a political solution to the Korean peninsula issue," Wang said.

South Korea's presidential official said high-level inter-Korean talks would be held in mid-May to work on implementing the agreement reached by Kim and Moon.

China had largely sat on the sidelines while the two Koreas improved ties, until Kim made a secretive trip to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March.

Beijing has been keen to show that it has an indispensable role to play in seeking a lasting solution, concerned that its interests may be ignored, especially as Pyongyang and Washington edge closer together.

The widely read Chinese state-run tabloid the Global Times said in an editorial any suggestion China was being marginalized "is a shallow attempt to manipulate public opinion".

China preferred quieter diplomacy, it said, pointing to the secrecy surrounding Kim's meeting with Xi.

"But Seoul, for its own political purposes, created much hype about the inter-Korean summit. U.S. President Donald Trump has started claiming credit for the Kim-Trump summit before it even starts," it said.

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Mattis hints at new Navy aircraft carrier strategy to throw off Russia and China in a potential future war

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Jim Mattis Joseph Dunford

  • Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hinted at major changes in the US Navy's way of deploying aircraft carriers in comments to the House Armed Services Committee last month, Defense News reports
  • Mattis said that the way aircraft carriers deploy today is like a commercial shipping company, and he'd rather it was more about keeping US adversaries Russia and China off balance.
  • Mattis proposed shorter, more erratic deployments that allow the US to surge presence in areas when needed, and to be unpredictable during peacetime. 

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hinted at major changes in the US Navy's way of deploying aircraft carriers in comments to the House Armed Services Committee last month, Defense News reports

Mattis compared how the US Navy deploys ships to a commercial shipping operation, with predictable, pre-planned routes, potentially blunting the strategic advantage of the fast-moving carriers.

"It's no way to run a Navy," Mattis told lawmakers at the House Armed Services Committe of the Navy's status quo on carrier deployments in April. 

Instead, Mattis wants to "ensure that preparation for great power competition drives us, not simply a rotation schedule that allows me to tell you three years from now which aircraft carrier will be where in the world," said Mattis, referring to war and rivalry with massive military powers like China and Russia as "great power competition."

Mattis' solution is quicker, more erratic deployments of aircraft carriers.

"When we send them out, it may be for a shorter deployment," he said. "There will be three carriers in the South China Sea today, and then, two weeks from now, there's only one there, and two of them are in the Indian Ocean."

But rather than eight-month-long deployments typical of aircraft carriers these days, where one single ship could see combat in the Persian Gulf before heading to the Indian Ocean and eventually back home, Mattis wants snappier trips.

"They'll be home at the end of a 90-day deployment," Mattis told lawmakers. "They will not have spent eight months at sea, and we are going to have a force more ready to surge and deal with the high-end warfare as a result, without breaking the families, the maintenance cycles — we'll actually enhance the training time."

Mattis' plan for more unpredictable deployments fits broadly with President Donald Trump's administration's national defense strategies that prioritize fighting against adversaries like Russia and China, both of which have developed systems to counter US aircraft carriers

With shorter, more spontaneous deployments of aircraft carriers, Mattis and the Navy could keep Russia and China on their toes.

SEE ALSO: The US Navy has abandoned classic sailing skills — and it could lose its next war

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10 US Navy SEALs will be discharged from the service after testing positive for cocaine and meth

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navy seal

  • Ten US Navy SEALs and one sailor in Navy special warfare have tested positive for cocaine and methamphetamines, a Navy spokesperson told Business Insider. 
  • This is not the first time the elite US military service has been troubled by drug use in its ranks.
  • SEALs have reported a culture of repressing reports of drug use, and Congress worries that the high workload on US Special Forces may be taking a toll.

Ten US Navy SEALs and one sailor in Navy special warfare have tested positive for cocaine and methamphetamines, a Navy spokesperson told Business Insider. 

"During a number of command drug tests from March to April 2018, 11 service members from East Coast-based Naval Special Warfare units tested positive for controlled substances," Cmdr. Tamara Lawrence said in a statement.

"We have a zero-tolerance policy for the use of illicit drugs and as such these individuals will be held accountable for their actions," the statement continued. "We are confident in our drug testing procedures and will continue to impress on all members of the command that illicit drugs are incompatible with the SEAL ethos and Naval service."

This is not the first time the elite US military service has been troubled by drug use in its ranks. In 2016, the East Coast SEALs took an operational pause to investigate drug usage, according to the US Naval Institute, which first reported the SEALs and sailor testing positive.

In April 2017, CBS spoke to members of the SEAL community who said that reporting or speaking up against drug use was a "career killer."

The SEALs' simmering drug-use scandal even sparked concern from Congress in November. Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, commented that US military special forces' "operational tempo is so incredible."

"The idea that you would have within six years, multiple deployments, some people every six months to deploy, that in and of itself causes lots of consequences," he added. "And we haven't seen a break in those deployments."

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South Korea gave Kim Jong Un a blueprint for developing North Korea — but it could be his downfall

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kim jong un computer

  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un received a USB drive with a blueprint for connecting his country to the world when he met South Korean President Moon Jae-in in April.
  • The blueprint had plans for railways to connect North Korea to the outside world in the interest of economic cooperation, but that could end up getting Kim Jong Un killed.
  • A former director of national intelligence in the US said that outside information is Kim's "kryptonite," and an expert told Business Insider it could crush the Kim regime.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un received a USB drive with a blueprint for connecting his country to the world when he met South Korean President Moon Jae-in in April — and while the device was likely meant as a sign of goodwill, it could bring Kim's downfall.

South Korea's Blue House, where Moon lives, reported that Moon gave Kim a book and a USB drive containing an e-book and a presentation on the "New Economic Map of the Korean Peninsula," something Moon announced last year.

The USB drive contained a blueprint for economic cooperation between the Koreas which detailed a series of proposals for railway lines that would connect the country to China, Russia, and as far as Europe. 

Though Moon most likely wants to use the map to entice North Korea to keep to the Panmunjom Declaration the two leaders signed at the demilitarized zone, it could have dire consequences for the Kim family.

North Korea fiercely controls the media and imprisons an estimated 100,000 of its citizens in camps that have been called worse than Auschwitz, a Nazi German death camp. North Koreans can be imprisoned or killed for having South Korean media, which is often smuggled into the country on USB drives or small SD cards. 

In fact, the practice of smuggling outside media into North Korea by putting an SD card up your nose has become so common they have a name: "Nose cards."

If North Korea goes through with denuclearization, declares peace with South Korea, and opens itself up economically to the world, the North Korean people will likely prosper, but the Kim regime may meet a bitter end.

While Kim seeks a promise from the US that its military will not invade North Korea after his proposed denuclearization, according to Yun Sun, a North Korea expert at the Stimson Center, if North Korea opens up to the world, the US won't need to invade.

While the US may not invade, it may "try to use color revolution," or promote democracy among the people until they organize in support, and then find ways to support that organization. 

Kim's Kryptonite 

North Korea

A former US Navy admiral and the former director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, testified to Congress in January that "the kryptonite that can weaken North Korea is information from beyond its borders." Blair expressed high confidence that an outside information campaign could weaken and destroy Kim's support.

In the case of reunification and denuclearization, North Korea would also be exposed to its prosperous southern neighbor, which is one of the most advanced, connected, and productive democracies in the world. 

Millions of North Koreans could gain access to a world of outside information. North Korean propaganda advances ridiculous, unscientific histories, which likely wouldn't hold up to scrutiny or exposure to outside information. Importantly, the citizens may find out that hundreds of thousands of their own friends and families had died, been tortured, and abused at the hands of Kim, who does not hold power temporariliy or democratically. 

"I don't think the North Korean regime is prepared for that," said Sun, who went on to question how sincere North Korea could be about opening up the country knowing the dangers of an informational revolution. Often in color revolutions against violent dictators, the ruler whose grip loosens comes to a violent end.

Sun shared a common joke around North Korea watchers — that the country is like canned food, because "once you open it it goes bad in days."

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Europe is scrambling to save the Iran deal after Trump withdraws the US

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trump iran deal executive order

  • Dismayed European allies sought to salvage the international nuclear pact with Iran on Wednesday after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the landmark accord.
  • Trump announced on Tuesday he would reimpose U.S. economic sanctions on Iran to undermine what he called "a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made".
  • The US told European firms to stop doing buiness with Iran, and now Tehran is looking at China ad Russia instead.

WASHINGTON/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Dismayed European allies sought to salvage the international nuclear pact with Iran on Wednesday after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the landmark accord, while officials in Tehran poured scorn on the U.S. leader.

"The deal is not dead. There's an American withdrawal from the deal but the deal is still there," French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said.

French President Emmanuel Macron would speak later in the day to his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, Le Drian said. Iran also signaled its willingness to talk.

Trump announced on Tuesday he would reimpose U.S. economic sanctions on Iran to undermine what he called "a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made".

The 2015 agreement, worked out by the United States, five other world powers and Iran, lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran limiting its nuclear program. The pact was designed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.

Trump complained that the deal, the signature foreign policy achievement of his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, did not address Iran's ballistic missile program, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 or its role in conflicts in Yemen and Syria.

His decision raises the risk of deepening conflicts in the Middle East, puts the United States at odds with European diplomatic and business interests, and casts uncertainty over global oil supplies. Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday, with Brent hitting a 3-1/2-year high.

It could also strengthen the hand of hardliners at the expense of reformers in Iran's political scene.

France's Le Drian said Iran was honoring its commitments under the accord.

"The region deserves better than further destabilization provoked by American withdrawal. So we want to adhere to it and see to it that Iran does too, that Iran behaves with restraint," he told French radio station RTL.

The European Union said it would remain committed to the deal and would ensure sanctions on Iran remain lifted, as long as Tehran meets its commitments.

France and others were well aware that there were concerns about issues other than nuclear capability but they too could be addressed without ditching the nuclear deal, Le Drian said.

Macron's contact with Rouhani will be followed by meetings next week, probably on Monday, involving the Iranians and European counterparts from France, Britain and Germany.

The prospects of saving the deal depend in large measure on whether international companies are willing and able to still do business with Iran due to the U.S. sanctions.

Le Drian said meetings would also be held with firms including oil giant Total <TOTF.PA> and others with major business and economic stakes in the region.

In a harbinger of what could be in store, Trump's new ambassador to Germany said German businesses should halt their activities in Iran immediately.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Trump's decision was a mistake and that the United States should not consider itself the world's "economic policeman".

European companies including carmaker PSA <PEUP.PA>, plane manufacturer Airbus <AIR.PA> and Siemens <SIEGn.DE> said they were keeping a close watch on the situation.

Mental capacity

donald trump

In Tehran, the speaker of the Iranian parliament mocked Trump, saying he was not fit for his job.

"Trump does not have the mental capacity to deal with issues," speaker Ali Larijani told the assembly. Larijani comes from one of the most prominent political families in Iran and often acts as a diplomatic envoy.

Members of parliament burned a U.S. flag and a symbolic copy of the Iran deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as a session of parliament began. They also chanted "Death to America".

General Mohammad Baqeri, the chief of staff of Iran's military, said Iran had not had to sign the deal.

"But that arrogant country (America) did not even stand by its signature," the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) quoted him as saying.

President Hassan Rouhani, a reformist, struck a more pragmatic tone, saying immediately after Trump's announcement that Iran would remain committed to the deal without Washington.

"If we achieve the deal's goals in cooperation with other members of the deal, it will remain in place," he said in a televised speech.

"I have ordered the foreign ministry to negotiate with the European countries, China and Russia in coming weeks. If at the end of this short period we conclude that we can fully benefit from the JCPOA with the cooperation of all countries, the deal would remain," he said.

Trump's decision intensifies the strain on the trans-Atlantic alliance since he took office 16 months ago. One by one, European leaders came to Washington and tried to meet his demands, while pleading with him to preserve the deal.

The Trump administration kept the door open to negotiating another deal with allies, but it is far from clear whether the Europeans would pursue that option or be able to convince Iran to accept it.

The leaders of Britain, Germany and France, signatories to the deal along with China and Russia, said in a joint statement that Trump's decision was a cause for "regret and concern."

China said it regretted the move. Its foreign ministry said Beijing would safeguard the deal and called on all relevant parties "to assume a responsible attitude".

A Western diplomat was more pointed.

"It announces sanctions for which the first victims will be Trump’s European allies," the diplomat said, adding that it was clear Trump did not care about the alliance.

America first 

maga hats

Abandoning the Iran pact was one of the most consequential decisions of Trump's high-stakes "America First" policy, which has led him to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord, come close to a trade war with China and pull out of an Asian-Pacific trade deal.

It also appeared to reflect the growing influence within the administration of Iran hawks like new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton.

Iran denies it has tried to build atomic weapons and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. U.N. inspectors say Iran has not broken the nuclear deal and senior U.S. officials themselves have said several times that Iran is in technical compliance with the pact.

Renewing sanctions would make it much harder for Iran to sell its oil abroad or use the international banking system.

Iran is the third-largest member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and pumps about 3.8 million barrels per day of crude, or just under 4 percent of global supply. China, India, Japan and South Korea buy most of its 2.5 million bpd of exports.

According to the U.S. Treasury, sanctions related to Iran's energy, auto and financial sectors will be reimposed in three and six months.

Licenses for Boeing Co <BA.N> and Airbus <AIR.PA> to sell passenger jets to Iran will be revoked, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said, scuttling a $38 billion deal.

Trump said the nuclear agreement did not prevent Iran from cheating and continuing to pursue nuclear weapons.

"It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement," he said. "The Iran deal is defective at its core." 

Trump said he was willing to negotiate a new deal with Iran, but Tehran already has ruled that out and threatened unspecified retaliation if Washington pulled out.

Iran's growing military and political power in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq worries the United States, Israel and U.S. Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia.

Among the few nations to welcome Trump's decision to renege on the deal were Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran's arch-foes in the Middle East.

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Close-up photos of Russia's new 'stealth' jet reveal its true purpose — and it's a big threat to the US

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Su-57 Moscow Victory Day parade 2018

  • Russia's fifth-generation fighter jet that made an appearance at Russia's Victory Day parade isn't really a stealth jet.
  • The side-mounted radars on the Su-57 allow it to excel at a tactic called "beaming" that can trick the radars on US stealth jets.
  • But it's unclear now if Russia will ever produce the Su-57 in reasonable quantities.

Russia's "fifth-generation,""combat-tested,""stealth" fighter jet has a lot of dubious claims made about it, but recent close-up photography of the plane from Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9 reveals it's just not a stealth jet.

Russia has tried to sell the plane as a stealth jet to India, but India backed out. Considering a shrinking economy and defense spending, it's unclear now if Russia will ever produce the Su-57 in reasonable quantities.

Business Insider asked a senior scientist working on stealth aircraft how to evaluate the plane's stealth, and the results were not good.

Take a look at the pictures below and see if you can spot what's wrong:

The scientist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of stealth work, pointed out six major problems from the pictures.

First, take a look at the seams between the flaps on the aircraft — they're big. For reference, look at the US's F-22, the stealthiest fighter jet on earth:

f 22 underside

The flaps at the end of the wing have very tight seams, which don't scatter radar waves, thereby maintaining a low profile. 

Secondly, look at the Su-57's vertical rear tails. They have a wide gap where they stray from the fuselage. Keeping a tight profile is essential to stealth, according to the scientist.

T-50 PAK FA

Look at the F-35's rear tails for reference; they touch the whole way.

f 35

Third, look at the nose of the Su-57. It has noticeable seams around the canopy, which kills stealth. The F-35 and F-22 share a smooth, sloped look.

It's likely Russia doesn't have the machining technology to produce such a surface. The actual nose of the Su-57 looks bolted on with noticeable rivets. 

Finally, take a look at the underside of the Su-57; it has rivets and sharp edges everywhere. "If nothing else convinces that no effort at [stealth] was attempted, this is the clincher," the scientist said.

Russia didn't even try at stealth, but that's not the purpose

Su-57

As the scientist said, Russia didn't even appear to seriously try to make a stealth aircraft. The Su-57 takes certain measures, like storing weapons internally, that improve the stealth, but it's leaps and bounds from a US or even Chinese effort.

This highlights the true purpose of Russia's new fighter — not to evade radar itself, but to kill US stealth jets like the F-35 and F-22. 

The Su-57 will feature side mounted radars along its nose, an infrared search-and-track radar up front, and additional radars in front and back, as well as on the wings. 

As The Drive's Tyler Rogoway writes, the side-mounted radars on the Su-57 allow it to excel at a tactic called "beaming" that can trick the radars on US stealth jets. Beaming entails flying perpendicular to a fighter's radar in a way that makes the fighter dismiss the signature of the jet as a non-target. 

Any fighter can "beam" by flying sideways, but the Su-57, with sideways-mounted radars, can actually guide missiles and score kills from that direction.

Russia has long taken a different approach to fighter aircraft than the US, but the Su-57 shows that even without the fancy percision-machined stealth of an F-22, Moscow's jets can remain dangerous and relevant.

SEE ALSO: The F-35 could dismantle Russia's Su-57 'stealth' jet program without even firing a shot

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Putin may have given Israeli PM Netanyahu the green light to wipe out Iran in Syria in a massive air war

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Israel Missile David's Sling

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
  • Netanyahu left saying he thought Russia wouldn't intervene in Israel protecting itself.
  • On Wednesday night, a massive air war broke out between Iranian forces in Syria and Israeli jets; Israel has said it destroyed numerous Iranian sites.
  • Putin has warned Netanyahu against attacking Syrian sites, but when it comes to Israel versus Iranians, he seems not to care. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Moscow's Victory Day parade on Wednesday. Hours later, a massive air war broke out in which, Israel says, it destroyed dozens of Iranian sites in Syria.

Statements from Netanyahu suggest that Putin may have given the green light before the attack.

Netanyahu left Russia saying that "there is a need to ensure the continuation of military coordination between the Russian military and the Israel Defence Forces." On Wednesday night, the IDF coordinated a massive series of strikes on Iranian targets across Syria, Russia's ally, Israel said.

Israel says it has hit targets in Syria more than 100 times since 2012 and maintains that it will continue to strike wherever it sees Iranian forces and assets that pose a threat to its security.

Russia has typically not acknowledged the Israeli incursions, but the fighting escalated massively on Wednesday night.

The IDF told Israel's Channel 10 News that more than 50 targets were hit in the strike, making it the largest attack carried out by Israel in Syria since the two signed an agreement following the end of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Israel said that around 1 a.m. local time, 20 Iranian Grad and Fajr rockets came streaking in toward northern Israel. The rockets, Israel said, were either intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system or fell short of their targets.

The Iranian barrage was expected. Israel had opened bomb shelters and warned its citizens of an impending attack after several suspected Israeli airstrikes had killed Iranians in Syria and laid waste to hundreds of rockets.

After the salvo, 28 Israeli jets flew over Syria, firing nearly 60 rockets and 10 surface-to-surface missiles, said Michael Horowitz, an analyst at the security consultancy LeBeck International, citing Russia's defense ministry.

Putin's role in this

putin netanyahu

Putin stepped into the Syrian civil war in 2015 as a guarantor of Syrian President Bashar Assad's security. He has stood by Assad even as the Syrian leader has been accused of conducting chemical warfare and other barbaric acts on his own people.

Each of the two times the US struck Syria, in what Washington characterized as punishment for chemical warfare, the prospect loomed that Russia could defend the Syrian targets or retaliate on their behalf.

But that does not appear to be the case when Israel strikes Syria.

In February, after Israel downed an Iranian drone it said was armed and flying in Israeli airspace, IDF jets were said to have knocked out half of Syria's air defenses in a massive air war; Israel lost an F-16 to Syrian missiles.

"The response to the downing of the Israeli jet was intended to be a lot more violent," the investigative journalist Ronen Bergman wrote in an op-ed article in The New York Times at the time.

A "furious phone call" from Putin was enough to make Netanyahu "cancel the plans," Bergman wrote. Netanyahu, most likely out for blood after losing a jet to Syrian forces, then offered a more muted response.

In mid-April, after Israel was again thought to have attacked Iranian forces in Syria, Putin called Netanyahu to warn him against striking targets in Syria.

Earlier this month, an Israeli security cabinet minister suggested that Israel could kill Assad if he were to interfere in Israel's campaign to stop Iran's buildup of forces on its border.

Russia said Syrian air defenses shot down several Israeli missiles on Wednesday night.

Russia has staked its credibility in the Middle East on ensuring Assad's survival against Western forces, which have openly mulled deposing the Syrian leader.

But when it comes to Israel striking Iranians in Syria, Ephraim Sneh, a former Israeli deputy defense minister told Business Insider he didn't think the Russians "actually care too much."

Russia operates advanced air defenses and an air force in Syria that have the ability to engage Israeli targets, but by all accounts, Moscow's forces stood down when Israeli missiles started flying.

SEE ALSO: Trump dealt a huge blow to Iran by trashing the deal — and it could lead to war

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Russia claims Syria's air defenses took out half of Israel's missiles during Wednesday night's air war

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israel iran missile battle syria

The Russian military says Israel fired more than 70 missiles at Iranian facilities in Syria and that Syrian air defenses shot down more than half of them.

Israel says it struck dozens of Iranian targets overnight in response to a rocket barrage on Israeli positions in the Golan Heights. It was the biggest Israeli strike in Syria since the 1973 war.

The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that 28 Israeli F-15 and F-16 fighter jets launched about 60 air-to-surface missiles during the two-hour raid early Thursday. It says Israel also fired over 10 tactical surface-to-surface missiles.

Russia is a key ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and has been waging its own air campaign on his behalf since 2015.

SEE ALSO: Putin may have given Israeli PM Netanyahu the green light to wipe out Iran in Syria in a massive air war

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Iran launched an attack on Israel — and they got badly beaten and internationally abandoned

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israel iran missile battle syria

  • Iran launched a missile strike on northern Israel late Wednesday night, with 20 Grad and Fajr rockets taking off from Syria in what was widely seen as a retaliation after months of Israeli airstrikes punishing their forces.
  • Israel's response reportedly crushed Iranian forces in Syria. 
  • After the attack, not even Iran's allies came to its defense, with even Bahraincondemning Iran's attack, even though Iran was badly punished for it.
  • Now, Iran's only recourse may be to silently take the beating or unleash Hezbollah for all-out war on Israel

Iran launched a missile strike on northern Israel late Wednesday night, with 20 Grad and Fajr rockets taking off from Syria in what was widely seen as a retaliation after months of Israeli airstrikes punishing their forces — but it looks like they got crushed.

Not only does Israel say it intercepted a number of the Iranian missiles, it says the other missiles failed to reach their target and sputtered out while still in Syria. 

The response from Israel included many more missiles, and, according to Israel, did serious damage that will take a long time to rebuild.

How we got here

F 16 Israel Crash

For years, Iran's clerical regime has chanted "death to Israel" and supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas on Israel's borders in Gaza and the West Bank, which the US designates as terror organizations. 

Since Iran became involved in Syria's civil war, Israel assesses it has attempted to move in forces and military assets to the Jewish state's borders in an attempt to arm its allies and attack Israel within its borders. Israel rarely admits to specific strikes, but owns that it has struck Iranians in Syria more than 100 times since 2012. 

In February, Israel reported that an armed Iranian drone flew into its airspace, which it shot down. Israel then launched massive air raids on Iranian-linked targets in Syria, and claimed to have wiped out half of Syria's air defenses in the process.

Scattered strikes in April escalated tensions by targeting not just Iranian proxies, but actual uniformed Iranian soldiers, and some high-up ones at that. Israel started warning of a prospective Iranian retaliation around this point. 

The strike

israel strike syria missile daraa

Israel released maps and even a simulated video of the strikes it carried out on Iranian targets in Syria. Russia claimed Syrian defenses downed more than half of the Israeli missiles, but they have consistently made dubious, unverified claims about Syrian missile defenses in the past.

Here are the Israeli media posts:

Israeli strike thumb

Here an unverified video claims to show a 31-minute missile and air defense battle over Damascus. 

The aftermath

israel lebanon missile

Iran's long-awaited retaliation finally came. Former Israeli deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh told Business Insider that Israel targeted "the intelligence and the infrastructure" of Iran's forces in Syria, doing "heavy damage" which "will take time to repair." Israel's current defense minister said they took out most of Iran's infrastructure in Syria.

In the end, the US, UK, and France all condemned Iran for its missile attack on Israel without mentioning Israeli incursions into Syria to strike Iranians. France went as far as saying that Iran's actions towards Israel merit revisiting and expanding the Iran nuclear deal to rein in Tehran's regional activity.

Bahrain, a Gulf Arab country that rarely speaks well of Israel, even condemned Iran's attack and asserted Israel's right to defend itself. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Business Insider that while they might not say it, other Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, probably support Israel pushing back Iran's influence.

Only Russia urged mutual calm in the wake of the massive air war in which its ally, Iran, suffered badly. 

What was missing was a total lack of international outrage. Israel carried out the strike with impunity after entering Syrian airspace uninvited. It lost no soldiers or civilians. Iran has been badly beaten by its great enemy and condemned on the world stage days after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. 

Now, Iran's only recourse may be to silently take the beating or unleash Hezbollah for all-out war on Israel.

But Israel may be ready for that as well, as Israeli reporter Barak Ravid quoted Israel's defense minister as saying, "If it rains in Israel, it will pour in Iran."

SEE ALSO: Putin may have given Israeli PM Netanyahu the green light to wipe out Iran in Syria in a massive air war

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China flies fighters and bombers around Taiwan in another threatening display

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china H-6K

  • Bombers and fighter jets from China's air force conducted encirclement drills around Taiwan on Friday.
  • China claims Taiwan as its sacred territory, and its hostility toward the island has grown since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
  • In the past year, Beijing has stepped up such military exercises, designed to send a message to Taiwan that it will thwart what it sees as any moves toward independence.

BEIJING (Reuters) - Bombers and fighter jets from China's air force conducted encirclement drills around Taiwan on Friday, the latest round of increasingly frequent military maneuvers near the self-ruled island that Taipei has denounced as intimidation.

China claims Taiwan as its sacred territory, and its hostility toward the island has grown since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

In the past year, Beijing has stepped up such military exercises, designed to send a message to Taiwan that it will thwart what it sees as any moves toward independence, even as Tsai has pledged to maintain the status quo and keep the peace.

The People's Liberation Army Air Force said in a statement on its official microblog that H-6K bombers and surveillance aircraft flew in opposite directions around Taiwan, displaying "a new upgrade in combat capabilities".

It said it was the first time Su-35 fighter jets had flown with the bombers through the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines.

China is in the midst of an ambitious program to modernize its armed forces, developing stealth fighters, aircraft carriers and advanced missiles as it strives to acquire a world-class military by the middle of the century.

That goal, coupled with an increasingly assertive stance in the disputed South China Sea waterway and around Taiwan, has rattled nerves around the region and in Washington.

Taiwan is well equipped with mostly U.S.-made weaponry, but has been pushing for Washington to sell it more advanced equipment, including new fighter jets, to help it better deter its giant neighbor.

Military experts say the balance of power between Taiwan and China has now shifted decisively in favor of China, which could probably overwhelm the island unless U.S. forces came quickly to its aid.

SEE ALSO: Hillary Clinton is warning Australia to resist China's creeping influence in Asia before it spreads to the rest of the world

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Israeli troops kill 16 protesting Palestinians as Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner open the Jerusalem embassy

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palestine gaza protest israel jerusalem

  • Israeli troops killed 16 Palestinians on Monday, including a 14-year-old boy and a man in a wheelchair, and some 500 protesters were injured, at least 200 by live bullets, health officials said.
  • "Today is the big day when we will cross the fence and tell Israel and the world we will not accept being occupied forever," said a protester.
  • Later in the day, Israeli leaders and a U.S. delegation including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump's daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, were due to attend the opening of the embassy.

GAZA BORDER (Reuters) — Israeli troops killed at least 16 Palestinians along the Gaza border on Monday, health officials said, as demonstrators streamed to the frontier on the day the United States prepared to open its embassy in Jerusalem.

Protests intensified on the 70th anniversary of Israel's founding, with loudspeakers on Gaza mosques urging Palestinians to join a "Great March of Return". Black smoke from tyres burned by demonstrators rose into the air at the border.

"Today is the big day when we will cross the fence and tell Israel and the world we will not accept being occupied forever," said Gaza science teacher Ali, who declined to give his last name.

"Many may get martyred today, so many, but the world will hear our message. Occupation must end," he said.

Israeli troops killed 16 Palestinians on Monday, including a 14-year-old boy and a man in a wheelchair, and some 500 protesters were injured, at least 200 by live bullets, health officials said. The man in the wheelchair had been pictured on social media using a slingshot.

The latest casualties raised the Palestinian death toll to 61 since the protests began on March 30. No Israeli casualties have been reported.

The killings have drawn international criticism, but the United States, which has angered the Palestinians and Arab powers by relocating its embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, has echoed Israel in accusing Gaza's ruling Hamas movement of instigating violence, an allegation it denies.

Later in the day, Israeli leaders and a U.S. delegation including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump's daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, were due to attend the opening of the embassy.

"What a moving day for the people of Israel and the State of Israel," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump's Middle East peace envoy, said on Twitter that "taking the long-overdue step of moving our Embassy is not a departure from our strong commitment to facilitate a lasting peace deal. Rather, it is a necessary condition for it."

But Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah said Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital in December and the relocation of the embassy were "blatant violations of international law".

The Palestinians, who want their own future state with its capital in East Jerusalem, have been outraged by Trump's shift from previous administrations' preference for keeping the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv pending progress in peace efforts.

Those talks have been frozen since 2014. Other international powers worry that the U.S. move could also inflame Palestinian unrest in the occupied West Bank, which Israel captured along with East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war.

'Hamas threats'

Hamas Gaza

Israel's military dropped leaflets into the enclave on Monday, warning Palestinians "not to serve as a tool of Hamas" or approach or damage Israel's frontier fence.

But thousands of Palestinians massed at five locations along the line. Of the 35 people wounded by Israeli gunfire, four were journalists, the officials said.

The Israeli military says its troops are defending the border and firing in accordance with the rules of engagement.

"We are prepared to face the Hamas threats to disrupt the [embassy] festivities," Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman tweeted.

"My recommendation to the residents of Gaza: Don't be blinded by (Hamas's Gaza leader, Yehya Al-) Sinwar, who is sending your children to sacrifice their lives without any utility. We will defend our citizens with all measures and will not allow the fence to be crossed."

The protests are scheduled to culminate on Tuesday, the day Palestinians mourn as the "Nakba" or "Catastrophe" when, in 1948, hundreds of thousands of them were driven out of their homes or fled the fighting around Israel's creation.

"Choosing a tragic day in Palestinian history [to open the Jerusalem embassy] shows great insensibility and disrespect for the core principles of the peace process," Hamdallah wrote.

Most countries say the status of Jerusalem — a sacred city to Jews, Muslins, and Christians — should be determined in a final peace settlement and that moving their embassies now would prejudge any such deal.

But Guatemala, which received support from Israel in its counterinsurgency campaigns in the 1980s, plans to open an embassy in Jerusalem on Wednesday. Its ambassador visited the new site, in an office building in the western part of the city, on Monday. Paraguay is to follow suit later this month.

In London, the British government said it had no plans to move its Israel embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and said it disagreed with the U.S. decision to do so.

The Russian government said it feared the embassy move would increase tensions across the Middle East.

SEE ALSO: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are in Israel to open the controversial US embassy in Jerusalem

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Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un could end in catastrophe — but that may be the point

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Kim Jong Un

  • President Donald Trump is set to make history on June 12 in Singapore  by meeting Kim Jong Un in a high-stakes diplomatic summit — but it could be destined to fail.
  • Experts doubt North Korea is sincere in its will to actually denuclearize, and they caution that high expectations for the summit could lease to massive failure.
  • Kim could play Trump by making it look like he's the one who ruins the talks.
  • That would put the US and North Korea back to square one, but this time without the possibility of talking to pull them back from the brink of nuclear war.
  • One expert told Business Insider the most likely outcome is that the talks produce a mediocre agreement that merely kicks the can down the road for North Korea's denuclearization. 

President Donald Trump is set to make history on June 12 in Singapore as the first sitting US president to meet a sitting North Korean leader with peace and denuclearization are on the table.

But if the summit fails, it could end in catastrophe, and that may be the point. 

As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes trips to probe North Korea's willingness to go through with denuclearization, something it has promised and reneged on multiple times in the past, Trump's stance on Pyongyang has emerged as very hardline. 

Pompeo has demanded the "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization" of North Korea before the US offers any easing of economic sanctions on Pyongyang.

So far, North Korea has appeared amenable to these requests, but experts remain highly doubtful. 

The end result could be a mediocre outcome sandwiched between two possible catastrophes

Hwasong 15 North Korean missile (ICBM).

"There are two extremely unlikely outcomes" for the summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un, said Vipin Narang, a North Korea expert at MIT.

The first unlikely outcome, Narang told Business Insider, is that "Trump walks away with Kim’s nuclear weapons," and the second is"catastrophic failure."

Narang said that more likely, Kim and Trump will partake in a photo shoot with handshakes and kind words. In that scenario, the US would accept some mixture of half measures to slowly wind down North Korea's nuclear programs while providing them with sanctions relief — much like the deals that have previously failed.

Narang called this outcome "kicking the can down the road," because it would likely only delay a serious confrontation between the US and North Korea over real denuclearization. 

But Narang said that one theory is that Trump, or Kim, intended the summit to end badly.

Great expectations, extreme consequences

North Korea

A major element of Kim's pivot toward diplomacy appears to be swaying public opinion. Meanwhile, Trump's administration also touts his achievements on North Korea as evidence of his presidency's successes.

But both parties come to the talks with seemingly impossible expectations. North Korea reportedly asks virtually nothing of the US, while the US asks North Korea to disarm completely and immediately. 

Joshua Pollack, a North Korea expert and senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, tweeted that the summit's "biggest problem" was "overinflated expectations."

The US wants North Korea to lay down its arms before a US dime heads to Pyongyang, and Kim wants US and international tensions to thaw to kick-start its stalled economy. Both parties want what they want fast, and only one party can get its way. 

"Whatever exactly the North Koreans hope to get out of the June summit, it doesn't sound like it overlaps very much with what Mike Pompeo is outlining," Pollack tweeted. 

If both parties go in with flawed expectations for the summit, as it appears from public statements they have, the talks could end very badly. 

"Kim’s strategy is smart," Narang said, referring to the vague promises of denuclearization from North Korea. "If it looks like Trump is the one walking away, then it looks like Kim wins."

If Kim leaves the summit saying Trump spoiled the deal, then the temperature on the Korean Peninsula goes up "astronomically," Narang said.

Victor Cha, the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies with knowledge of Trump's thinking on North Korea, recently told MSNBC's "Morning Joe"  that the worst-case scenario for the talks would be for the US and Pyongyang to "walk out of this thing angry at each other, with deflated expectations — and then there's no place left to go, there's no more diplomacy, because you've used your biggest card right up front."

If both parties exit the talks with no deal and no progress, Trump and Kim could easily find themselves going back to nuclear threats, but this time without the prospect of talks to keep them from the brink of military conflict.

SEE ALSO: South Korea gave Kim Jong Un a blueprint for developing North Korea — but it could be his downfall

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Russia appears to have turned its back on Iran's forces in Syria — and now Israel looks in charge

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israeli air force blue flag israel

  • Russia on Friday reportedly declined to export its advanced S-300 missile defense system to Syria.
  • A bunch of Syrian air defenses reportedly were destroyed by Israel on Wednesday, but Russia still declined.
  • The developments indicate Russia may have turned its back on protecting Iranians, who were the targets of the Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday night.
  • Now, undefended Iranian forces in Syria are at the mercy of Israel, who seems capable of striking when and where it likes, despite Iran being Russia's ally. 

Russia on Friday reportedly declined to export its advanced S-300 missile defense system to Syria despite a high tempo of international and Israeli airstrikes peppering the country over the last few months, in the latest sign that Moscow has turned its back on Iran in the country. 

Russia is Syria's ally. The US, UK, and France launched airstrikes on Syria in April. Israel launched airstrikes on Syria in May, and likely many others in April, March, and February.

Israel maintains it will strike Iranian targets in Syria as long as they ally with Hezbollah and Hamas, both anti-Israel US-designated terror organizations that operate near Israel's borders. 

Despite the near constant stream of powerful countries bombing targets in Syria, and Syria's weak attempts to defend against the attacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin's aide in charge of foreign military assistance said Syria had "everything it needs."

On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Putin in Moscow. That same night, Israeli airstrikes reportedly wiped out the majority of Syrian air defenses in the southern part of the country. Russian-owned and operated air defenses in Syria, which include the S-300, did nothing to stop the attack.

Israel has long wanted Russia to withhold its more powerful defenses from Syria.

Israel is in charge now

missile pantsir s1 syria israel

Israel stomped on Russian-made Syrian air defenses on Wednesday night in the largest Israeli Air Force attack in Syria since the two countries went to war in 1973. The massive battle saw Syria's older Russian-made air defenses outmatched — and obliterated.

Israel has carried out strikes with the express purpose of beating down Iranian forces in southern Syria. By all accounts, the attacks succeeded in taking out command posts, infrastructure, and munitions. Israel won't tolerate a buildup of Iranian forces along its borders in Syria as Iran explicitly seeks to destroy Israel.

Though Israel has engaged in more than 100 airstrikes in Syria since 2012, mostly against Iranian-linked forces, it has treaded softly and attempted to avoid a larger war. 

Without new reinforcements like Russia's S-300, and with the former defenses laying in ruin, Iranian forces in Syria will be greatly exposed to Israeli air power.

Russia may continue to trade with Tehran after the US imposed sanctions following its withdraw from the Iran deal, and continue to be Iran's ally on paper. But Russia, by denying Syria air defenses, looks to have turned its back on supporting the regional ambitions of Ayatollah Khamenei.

SEE ALSO: Israel's F-35s may have already flown a combat mission against Russian air defenses in Syria

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Trump administration abandons peace push as Israel kills dozens in border struggle with Hamas, Palestinians

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Ivanka Trump US embassy Jerusalem Gaza Palestinians

  • Israeli forces and Palestinians have been clashing in increasingly deadly protests along the border in Gaza while President Donald Trump's administration has failed to promote peace.
  • The clashes have been going on since March 30, but on Monday took a deadly turn when 58 were killed and thousands wounded.
  • Trump's family and senior advisers visited Jerusalem to open an interim US embassy there on Monday, but avoided spreading a message that both Israel and Palestinians could celebrate.


Israeli forces and Palestinians, some members of the terror organization Hamas, were set for massive clashes on Tuesday after months of protesting have culminated in dozens of deaths and drawn airstrikes from Israel's air force.

On Monday, Israeli forces killed 58 Palestinian protesters and injured about 2,700 with live gunfire, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. On Tuesday, Israel said its jets bombed Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, killing 11, while tanks targeted another two posts, according to Israel's military.

Tuesday marks the final day of the protests that started March 30 called the "March of the Return." While the protest's organizers maintain it's a nonviolent demonstration, protesters have attempted to breach Israel's borders with bombs and flaming kites intended to spark fires on the Israeli side.

Hamas moved among the protesters and made violent attempts to enter Israel, and it has posted videos of such incidents. Hamas avowedly seeks the destruction of Israel and speaks of "the Return" as the removal of Jewish people in the region, and their replacement with Palestinians, something Israel won't seriously entertain.

Trump's peace push looking like an afterthought

Donald Trump Benjamin Netanyahu

With such a bitter and deep divide between the sides in the ongoing conflict, leadership from President Donald Trump's administration has been conspicuously absent.

While Trump's daughter and son-in-law attended the opening of an interim US embassy in Jerusalem on Monday — the most violent day of protesting yet — they delivered a message that spoke to the Israeli side only.

Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner spoke of Jerusalem being Israel's capital but failed to mention that the eastern part of the divided city belonged to Palestinians and could one day be its capital. Most serious maps drawn up for a two-state solution to the crisis call for such borders and capitals.

The Trump administration has taken no steps to assuage Palestinian fears that Israel seeks to continue to colonize and push its people away from the holy city. Israel said Hamas has used those fears to stoke protests, which it meets with lethal force.

The Isreal Policy Forum statement called Monday's embassy opening a "missed opportunity to affirm that American policy remains that Jerusalem will eventually be a shared capital of both Israel and a future Palestinian state."

"Doing so would demonstrate the US commitment to a two-state solution and turn today from solely an Israeli celebration into one that can be shared by both sides," the statement went on.

While France and the UK called for Israel to restrain itself in protecting its borders, Trump's White House called for no such restraint and blamed Hamas, not Israel, for the killings.

Trump promised during his campaign to push hard for peace between Israel and Palestinians, and appointed Kushner to handle the tricky issue, but so far has cut funding to the Palestinians more legitimate government, the Palestinian Authority, and solidly supported Israel's use of force even in light of mounting deaths along the border.

"It's ludicrous to think Jared was ever going to bring peace to Israel/Palestine,"Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, wrote on Newspicks. "Trump said it well — walls work, and nowhere do they work better than in Israel. As long as you're not Palestinian, that's not a problem."

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US Navy braces for a period of 'uncertainty' after Trump withdraws from the Iran deal

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Iran Navy

  • The United States Navy is closely watching Iranian behavior in the Gulf and expects a "period of uncertainty" and increased level of alertness after President Donald Trump pulled the US from the Iran deal.
  • "It is a period of uncertainty that we are entering into right, how the whole world will respond to this latest development," Chief of U.S. Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson said.
  • In recent years, there have been periodic confrontations between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of Iran's armed forces, and U.S. military in the Gulf.

ABOARD A MILITARY AIRCRAFT (Reuters) - The United States Navy is closely watching Iranian behavior in the Gulf and expects a "period of uncertainty" and increased level of alertness after President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from an international nuclear deal with Iran, the U.S. Navy chief said on Monday.

Trump said last week that the United States was withdrawing from a 2015 deal negotiated by the Obama administration.

The withdrawal has upset Washington’s European allies, cast uncertainty over global oil supplies and raised the risk of conflict in the Middle East.

"It is a period of uncertainty that we are entering into right, how the whole world will respond to this latest development," Chief of U.S. Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson told a small group of reporters.

"(We have to) remain alert, I mean even a little bit more alert than usual to just be open to any kind of response or new development or something like that," Richardson added.

He was speaking after visiting the aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush off the coast of Virginia where U.S. and French troops are carrying out joint training.

Richardson said the U.S. Navy had not seen provocative Iranian behavior in the Gulf since Trump's announcement, but was watching closely.

In recent years, there have been periodic confrontations between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of Iran's armed forces, and U.S. military in the Gulf - a major trade route for oil - but there have been no major incidents since last year.

Last August, U.S. officials said an Iranian drone came within 100 feet (30 meters) of a U.S. Navywarplane as it prepared to land on an aircraft carrier in the Gulf.

Iran, which sees the Gulf as its backyard and believes it has a legitimate interest in expanding its influence there, has long argued that the region should organize its own security collectively, without outside powers.

SEE ALSO: Trump administration abandons peace push as Israel kills dozens in border struggle with Hamas, Palestinians

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